Race predictions report
Current running race predictors from Garmin, Strava, and other platforms may be underestimating or overestimating your fitness. See how your predictions compare to real race results from real runners.
*Data from races that had both a Garmin and Strava prediction.
How far off are predictions?
Bar heights show the typical gap between predicted and actual times. Lower percentage means more accuracy.
Does Garmin or Strava know your pace better?
Each curve shows how their predictions matched up against your actual races. Narrow curves near 0% mean they're dialed in to how you run.
Do runners go faster or slower than their prediction?
The shaded area shows the density of error, and the white dot shows the median value of the distribution. When the dot is on the center line, runners race faster and slower than their prediction an equal amount of time. When the dot is to the right of the center line, runners race faster than their prediction most of the time.
Are predictions better for certain races?
Predictions tend to nail your 5Ks and 10Ks, but miss wider on marathons. Why? Longer races have more unknowns — your pacing strategy, fueling, how your body holds up over hours.
How often do predictions work?
Each line shows the percentage of runners that had predictions under a given error. The faster a line reaches the top, the better.
Which predictor is more conservative?
For races with both Strava and Garmin predictions, this shows which one predicted a slower (more conservative) time.
The data on your predictions
Each platform's performance across your races. "Typical" is the median error. Standard deviation shows consistency — lower means less variation.
| Platform | Typical Absolute Error | Avg Absolute Error | Typical Error | Avg Error | Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garmin | 3.9% | 5.3% | -1.6% | -1.7% | 6.9% |
| Strava | 3.3% | 4.1% | +2.0% | +2.6% | 5.0% |
Real predictions from real runners
Every row represents an actual runner's prediction and race result. See how your peers performed compared to what their watch told them.
| Platform | Predicted | Actual | Distance | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garmin | 3:20:02 | 2:57:57 | Marathon | 12% faster |
| Garmin | 0:18:27 | 0:17:30 | 5K | 5% faster |
How to Read These Numbers
Positive error (+%): Your watch predicted a slower time than you actually ran. For example, +5% means you were 5% faster than predicted—good news!
Negative error (-%): Your watch predicted a faster time than you actually ran. For example, -5% means you were 5% slower than predicted.
Why this matters: Understanding prediction accuracy helps you set realistic race goals and know whether to trust your watch's estimates or adjust them based on real-world data.
Note: All data is self-reported and anonymized. Results may vary based on training, conditions, and individual factors.